预算软约束和金融危机理论的微观建构

已有的三代金融危机模型尽管有较强的解释力 ,但其微观建构不足 ,通过引入预算软约束理论 ,Dewartripont Maskin模型显示出 ,在集中性金融体系中 ,预算软化将引发信贷扭曲膨胀 ;再结合Flood Garber模型 ,则可为金融危机提供更可信的微观基础 ,防范预算软约束型金融危机必须从减少政策性负担、弱化政府隐含担保和引入竞争性金融体系等方面入手

Soft Budget Constraints and Micro-fundamentals of Financial Crisis

The explanatory ability of existed three generation models of financial crisis is insufficient at micro fundamentals'level with the support of soft budget constraints(SBC)theory,Dewatipont Maskin model shows that SBC will result in credit expansion distortion,SBC theory can also set the Flood Garber financial crisis model in more reliable micro fundamentals.Budget solidification is to be achieved through the alleviation of policy burdens,the attenuation of implicit governmental guarantee and the inducement of competition to local financial system. by Logistic Regression is more precise in predicting fumancial distress with lowest error.