Valuation and Return Dynamics of New Ventures

A dynamic model of a multistage investment project that capturesmany features of research and development (R&D) venturesand start-up companies is developed. An important feature theseproblems share is that firms learn about the potential profitabilityof the project throughout its life, but that technical uncertaintyabout the R&D effort is only resolved through additionalinvestment. Consequently the risks associated with the ultimatecash flows have a systematic component even while the purelytechnical risks are idiosyncratic. Our model captures thesedifferent sources of risk and allows us to study their interactionin determining the value and risk premium of the venture.