金融体系制度性顺周期机制： 理论与实证分析

内生于金融体系的顺周期属性会显著放大经济“繁荣-萧条周期”并导致金融不稳定，是20世纪70年代以来全球范围内金融危机频发的重要启示之一。与传统文献关注金融体系“自身行为顺周期效应”不同，本文聚集于“制度性顺周期效应”，从资本监管、贷款损失拨备制度以及公允价值会计准则等三个典型事例切入，对金融体系的制度性顺周期机制进行系统阐述。结果表明，根植于金融部门与实体经济中间的制度性正反馈机制与经济波动程度存在较强的相关性，是导致金融不稳定的重要原因。

THE INSTITUTIONAL PROCYCLICAL MECHANISM OF FINANCIAL SYSTEM: THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

Since 1970s，the mutually reinforcing mechanisms through which the financial system can amplify business fluctuations and possibly cause or exacerbate financial instability，is considered as one of the important revelations drawn from the frequent occurrence of crisesDifferent from traditional methods，the perspective of study has switched from the endogenous “self behavior procyclicality effect” to the exogenous “institutional procyclicality effect”This paper starts with the three typical cases，namely capital regulation，loan loss provisions system as well as fair value accounting principles，and expounds systematically the institutional procyclicality mechanisms of financial system from both theoretical and empirical perspectivesThe conclusion suggests that the institutional positive feedback mechanism which is rooted between the financial sector and real economy is closely related to the degree of economic fluctuations and is also the key factor that leads to financial instability