| Abstract: | The application of generation dynamics, a methodology for technological forecasting, is widespread in computer-integrated manufacturing systems (CIMS). Experts' opinions about the past and future generations of technology are summarized for computer hardware, computer software, industrial robots, computer vision, computer-aided process planning, and the entire automated factory. The concept of generation dynamics has also been applied to products to be produced by CIMS and to the industrial environment of CIMS. Although experts in the same area do not completely agree with one another, their acceptance of experts' opinions on generation dynamics in other areas to be integrated by CIMS helps the forecasts to be mutually reinforcing and self-fulfilling. On the other hand, such relatively unquestioned acceptance, if and when experts' opinions in other areas become outdated, leads to assumption drag in forecasting. |
