新一轮通货膨胀产生的可能性分析

在连续三年实行扩张性的经济政策,经济拐点已经显现的形势下,新一轮通货膨胀的威胁正在逼近.我国近20年经济周期发展的趋势和规律表明,每一次扩张性的经济政策都将导致新一轮更高的通货膨胀;扩张性的财政货币政策积累了通货膨胀的风险,石油等生产资料价格的上涨及粮食减产带来的粮价上涨都将可能引发新一轮通货膨胀.

Analysis of Occurrence Probability of a New Round of Inflation

The menance of a new round of inflation is approaching under the expansible policy of economy executed in running three years and occurrence of economic turn.The rule and development trend of near 20 years economic cycle in our country has showed that each of expansible policy of economy can lead to a new round of higher inflation.A new inflation will be caused by the danger accumulated by the expansible fiscal and monetary policy,oil and other productive prices going up ,and the reduction of grain yield.