| 科技投入与科技产出的关联分析及趋势预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 董奋义.科技投入与科技产出的关联分析及趋势预测[J].技术经济,2009,28(7):22-26. |
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| 作者姓名： | 董奋义 |
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| 作者单位： | 河南农业大学,信息与管理科学学院,郑州,450002 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，河南省教育厅软科学项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文基于2002—2007年的年度数据,采用灰色系统理论方法,对我国科技产出与科技投入及其关联关系进行分析和预测。结果显示:目前我国科技成果登记数的发展主要由科技活动人员投入推动,属于低层次的劳动密集型科技发展模式,预计2008—2012年这种状况将得到一定程度的改善;技术市场成交额和发明专利产出数受科技活动经费的影响最大。
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| 关 键 词： | 科技活动 科技产出 关联分析 趋势预测 |
Correlative Analysis on Sci-tech Input and Sci-tech Output and Trend Forecast in China |
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| Dong Fenyi.Correlative Analysis on Sci-tech Input and Sci-tech Output and Trend Forecast in China[J].Technology Economics,2009,28(7):22-26. |
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| Authors: | Dong Fenyi |
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| Institution: | Dong Fenyi ( School of Information and Management Science, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the data about inputs and outputs of sci-tech activities in China during 2002-2007,this paper analyzes and forecasts outputs and inputs of sci-tech activities in the future and the correlative relationships between them by the grey system theory. The results shows that: the enhancement of registration number of scientific and technological achievements is mainly promoted by the input of sci-tech staff,which be-longs to the low-level output mode,and is improved during 2008-2012 to some extent; the transaction value in technical market and the patent output are determined by sci-tech funds. |
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| Keywords: | sci-tech activity sci-tech output correlative analysis trend forecast |
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