| Abstract: | This paper reports the problems encountered in applying Markov Chain analysis to the Permanent sample of milk producers in England and Wales, and presents predictions obtained for producer numbers and milk output, by regions, for the years 1970/71 and 1975/76. As a consequence of the “pool of entrants” problem, dificulties arise both in estimating the required transition probabilities and in forecasting producer numbers. Solutions to these, and to other problems concerned with obtaining prediction of milk output, from those of producer numbers, are proposed. It is forecast that producer numbers will decline by 18 per cent and 33 per cent by 1970/71 and 1975/76 respectively, with the largest proportional decline occurring among smaller producers. Two forecasts are made of milk supply and these are compared with estimates made by the Milk Morltetiiic Board. |
