Problems and prospects of grain production in China

Abstract

The success of agricultural reforms in China has been widely recognized but the problems of, and constraints to, food production have not been well debated. This paper argues that there are impediments to sustainable growth of grain production. The major problems identified include long term state bias against the rural population and agriculture, lack of investment and low price incentives. The major constraints include a continuous decline in crop area and low profitability. However, China still has comparative advantage in cereal production. If consistent and effective policies were adopted, China could manage to maintain a high degree of food self‐sufficiency even in the long run.