Global Taxation Governance after the 2002 UN Monterrey Conference

Using longitudinal data from 2354 smallholder households in 103 villages in eight African countries, three processes of agrarian transformation are analysed for the period 2002 to 2008: intensification of grain production, commercial diversification from staple crops and income diversification out of agriculture. Methodologically, three multi-level, binary logistic models are used. The trends observed provide grounds for some optimism: despite an overall picture of stagnation, intensification in grains (yield per hectare) seems to be increasing. Farmers have, however, raised productivity through the more intense use of labour resources rather than through technological change, while political commitments to agriculture have not improved the production environment. Rather, economic growth and commercialization emerge as strong drivers of intensification, both at country and household levels. Tendencies towards distress-driven income diversification out of agriculture appear to have abated somewhat in the face of more dynamism in the grain sector, with households moving between the farm and non-farm sectors in response to shifts in producer incentives and non-farm opportunities. Diversification processes within agriculture, meanwhile, point to both push- and pull-driven diversification occurring simultaneously. Grain markets, crop diversification and non-farm opportunities complement one another over time. There is little evidence of even incipient processes of structural transformation among the smallholders surveyed.