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China feels the heat: negative impacts of high temperatures on China's rice sector
Authors:Xiaoguang Chen  Shuai Chen
Institution:1. Research Institute of Economics and Management, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu, China;2. China Academy for Rural Development (CARD), Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
Abstract:We analysed a county‐level data set of single‐season rice yield and daily weather outcomes in China to examine the effects of temperature on China's rice sector. We found that rice yield exhibited highly nonlinear responses to temperature changes: rice yield increased with temperature up to 28°C and decreased sharply with higher temperatures. Holding current growing seasons and regions constant, average rice yield in China is projected to decrease by 10–19 per cent by 2050 and 11–33 per cent by 2070 due to future warming under the global climate models HadGEM2‐ES and NorESM1‐M. These results imply that future warming poses a major challenge for Chinese rice farmers and that the effectiveness of adaptations will depend on how well they reduce the negative temperature impacts on rice yield because of very hot days.
Keywords:China  global warming  nonlinear temperature effects  rice yield
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