煤炭政策对煤炭价格影响的实证研究

自2013年以来，由于受到国内外经济下滑趋势的影响，煤炭价格持续走低。为此，政府出台了一系列煤炭救市政策，通过控产量、限进口等来促进煤价回升。运用VAR模型、协整等计量方法研究煤炭产量、销量及进口量与煤炭价格间的动态关系。结果表明煤炭产量、销量及进口量与煤炭价格之间存在长期协整关系，但是其对煤炭价格的调控作用并不明显。

An Empirical Study of the Effect of Coal Policy on Price

Since 2013, coal prices continue to decline because of the impact of domestic and foreign economic downturn trend. ?As a consequence, the government has issued a series of Coal policies to promote coal recovery by Controlling yields and?limiting?foreign?imports,?etc. Based on co-integration test, VAR model and impulse responses, this paper analyses the dynamic relationship between imports level, coal?output, coal sales and coal price. The results show that?there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between four factors; The effect that coal policy regulates and controls coal prices is not significant.