| Abstract: | This study highlights the recent global trends of the air transport market and develops a simulation model to assess the welfare impacts of tripartite liberalization in the Northeast Asian air transport market. First, in the global air transport market, routes between 1000 and 2000 km are identified as the fastest growing segment. Gravity model analysis reveals that there is potentially significant room for further growth from cross‐border liberalization. Second, in the impact assessment of market liberalization in Northeast Asia, the effect of tripartite market liberalization of triangular routes that connect major cities in each of the three nations, Japan, South Korea and Mainland China, is analyzed. Simulation using a Cournot model with product differentiation shows that overall welfare gains would be achieved from tripartite liberalization. Air carriers' losses are overridden by an increase in consumer surplus. Such an arrangement by the three nations might eventually lead to an integrated environment in which airlines could evolve into a true multi‐hub Northeast Asian air carriers. |
