An international comparison of economic leading indicators of telecommunications traffic

The purpose of this paper is to draw international comparisons of the coherence of indexes of leading economic indicators with selected telecommunications traffic series. The traffic series under consideration are total Australian telephone outgoing and U.S. outgoing telephone to Australia with data consisting of monthly observations spanning the period 1970–1983. The response of the telecommunications traffic to these indexes is analysed using cross-spectral techniques. Additionally, a dynamic regression forecasting model for Australian traffic is estimated using the Australian index as an explanatory variable. In comparison to an ARIMA model for the telecommunications data this model reduces post-sample MSE by 19 percent.