中国外汇储备规模与汇率关系的实证研究——基于人民币对国外主要币种汇率的分析

在目前中国外汇储备连年增长、人民币相对美元升值的背景下,运用协整、Granger因果关系检验等时间序列分析方法对外汇储备和人民币对国外主要币种汇率关系进行实证分析.研究结果表明,外汇储备与人民币对国外主要币种汇率之间不具有长期的协整性,但存在从外汇储备到人民币对国外主要币种汇率的单向因果关系.外汇储备的增长会引起人民币对国外主要币种汇率上升,短期内外汇储备的增长会对人民币汇率升值带来一定的压力.中国应考虑对人民币名义汇率的调整,从而缓解人民币的升值压力,抑制外汇储备的增长速度.

The Empirical Research between China's Foreign Exchange Reserves and the Exchange Rates

In the background of successive years of growth in the foreign exchange reserve and the appreciation of the RMB against the dollar at present,we can do the empirical analysis by using the cointegration,Granger causality test,and other time series analysis method to study the relationship between the foreign exchange reserve and the major foreign currency ex-change rates of RMB.The results show that there is no long-term cointegration between them,but exsit one-way causality from the foreign exchange reserve...