| 对河北省旅游产业的灰色关联分析及预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 穆之秀,李鑫,李俊丽. 对河北省旅游产业的灰色关联分析及预测[J]. 价值工程, 2008, 27(10) |
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| 作者姓名： | 穆之秀 李鑫 李俊丽 |
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| 作者单位： | 燕山大学,秦皇岛,066004;燕山大学,秦皇岛,066004;燕山大学,秦皇岛,066004 |
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| 摘 要： | 河北省是地处华北、外绕渤海,内环京津,是我国的旅游资源大省,加大力度发展旅游是目前河北省优选发展的重点。利用灰色关联度分析法及灰色GM(1,1)预测模型对河北省的旅游发展状况进行了定量分析,并对结果进行了分析及预测;短期预测精度很高,未来5年内河北省的旅游发展状况呈稳步上升趋势。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色关联度 灰色预测GM(1,1)模型 国际旅游外汇收入 |
The Gray Association Analysis and Forecasting to the Tourism Industry of Hebei Province |
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| MU Zhi-xiu,LI Xin,LI Jun-li. The Gray Association Analysis and Forecasting to the Tourism Industry of Hebei Province[J]. Value Engineering, 2008, 27(10) |
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| Authors: | MU Zhi-xiu LI Xin LI Jun-li |
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| Abstract: | Located in north,surrounded the Bohai Sea,Beijing and Tianjin,Hebei is a big province of rich tourism resources in our countries.The developing of tourism is the top priority of development in Hebei Province.Based on the gray association analysis and GM (1,1) model,the paper gives the quantitative analysis of the tourism development in Hebei Province,analyzes and forecasts the results.The accuracy of short-term forecasting of the paper is very high,and the tourism development of Hebei Province shows the steadily improving trends in the next five years. |
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| Keywords: | Gray Association Gray Forecast GM(1 1) Model international tourism exchange revenue |
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