劳动力转移对资本回报率影响的机制分析与实证研究

在新一届政府提出大力发展城镇化的背景下，我国资本回报率是否可以支撑城镇化将带来的大量固定资本投资？本文构造了一个两部门模型，并结合中国的省际数据和多重代理变量方法从理论机制和实证研究两方面证明了：由于劳动力从农村部门向现代部门转移，资本回报率有可能出现随资本存量增加而先递增后递减的趋势。即如果城镇化可以拉动劳动力的持续转移，那么固定资本投资在一段时期内将有较高的资本回报率作为支持。研究结果还表明，制造业规模、存贷比指标、非国有企业所占的比重以及产品市场的发育程度也会对资本回报率的产生一定的影响。

The Effect of Labor Transfer on the Return to Capital Mechanism Analysis and Empirical Test

Pressing ahead with urbanization has been put forward by the new government as one of the most important policies in the next few years. But some people are worrying about the over investment problem could be aggravated. This paper constructs a dual-economy model in which the return on capital is of inverse-U shape. The reasons are capital concentration, labor mobility and scale economy. We calculate the Chinese provincial return on capital and use the Chinese provincial data to test the model. The results show that if the urbanization policy can make people transfer from the traditional sector to modern sector, then the return to capital may not fall. That is, the investment driven by urbanization has high return to capital as a support. We also find that the scale of manufacture, the financial index, the proportion of SOE and the development of product market are also the factors which affect the return on capital in China.