| 中国东盟经济周期同步性及传导机制研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 周艳波. 中国东盟经济周期同步性及传导机制研究[J]. 内蒙古财经学院学报, 2014, 0(1): 58-63 |
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| 作者姓名： | 周艳波 |
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| 作者单位： | 广东外语外贸大学国际经济贸易学院,广东广州510006 |
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| 基金项目： | 广东外语外贸大学研究生科研创新项目（13GWCXXM-04） |
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| 摘 要： | 随着区域经济一体化的深入，中国东盟的经济波动出现了一致性的特点。运用HP滤波以及皮尔逊相关系数对中国与东盟经济周期的同步性进行分析，发现中国与东盟经济周期存在同步性，并且这种同步性真正形成于20世纪90年代。进一步对1992—2011年中国与东盟五国面板数据进行实证分析，结果显示贸易强度、产业结构差异性显著增加了中国东盟经济周期的同步性，而双边FDI减弱了经济周期同步性，产业内贸易的影响则不显著。
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| 关 键 词： | 中国-东盟 国际贸易 双边FDI 产业结构 经济周期同步性 |
Research on Economic Cycle Synchronization and Transmission Mechanism of China -ASEAN |
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| Affiliation: | ZHOU Yan- bo (School of International Economic and Trade, Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, Guangzhou 510036, China) |
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| Abstract: | With the deepening of regional economic integration, China - ASEAN economic fluctuations appeared consistent characteristics. Using HP filter and Pearson correlation coefficients to analysis economic cycle synchronization between China and ASEAN, finding that economic cycle synchronization existed in these two economics, and this synchronization truly formed in the 1990s. Further empirical analysis of panel data in 1992 - 2011of China and five ASEAN countries showed that trade intensity, significant differences in the industrial structure of China - ASEAN increased synchronization of economic cycles, while bilateral FDI weakened the economic cycle synchronization, intraindustry trade didn＇t have significant impact. |
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| Keywords: | China - ASEAN international trade bilateral FDI industrial structure economic cycle synchronization |
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