The future of the New Zealand tourism workforce in 2035

This paper uses scenario planning to explore what the New Zealand tourism workforce may look like in the year 2035. Based on a similar study on the Asia-Pacific tourism workforce, a three-round Delphi method was used. From ten drivers of change, immigration policies and the growing Asian market emerged as the most important. These formed the basis for the four alternative future scenarios, each of which presents various challenges and opportunities for employers and employees. The scenarios were named Manaakitanga is Found Here, Pick of the Labour Crop, Struggling for Respect, and Cheap and Plentiful. The study highlights the necessity of seeking a balanced solution for the workforce and striving for a quality tourism product that respectfully integrates indigenous culture.