人民币升值对FDI流入与产业结构优化影响的实证分析

对于开放经济体,本币升值会对国内产业结构产生影响。本文利用2005—2011年的季度数据,通过协整检验和建立误差修正模型来分析人民币升值对FDI流入与产业结构优化的影响。实证结果显示,人民币即期汇率升值与FDI流入和产业结构优化之间不存在因果关系,而FDI流入与产业结构优化对人民币远期汇率变动与即期汇率波动的变动反应较敏感,无论长期还是短期,人民币远期汇率升值与即期汇率波动弹性加大都不利于我国FDI对产业结构优化积极作用的发挥。

An empirical analysis of the influence of the appreciation of RMB to FDI inflows and the industrial structure optimization

For the open economies,the appreciation of a country’s currency will affect its FDI and domestic industrial structure.The paper analyzed the influence of the appreciation of RMB to FDI inflows and the industrial structure optimization,through co-integration test and building error correction model by using quarterly data of 2005—2011.The empirical results showed that there was no causality between the appreciation of RMB spot rate and FDI inflows,as well as between appreciation of RMB spot rate and the industrial structure optimization,and that FDI inflows and the industrial structure optimization reacted sensitively to the fluctuation of the forward rate and the spot rate.No matter in the long-term or short-terms,increasing of forward rate appreciation and elasticity of spot rate fluctuation were not good for FDI to play a positive role in the optimizing industrial structure in China..