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Inflation, Unemployment and the NAIRU in Australia
Authors:Mark Crosby  & Nilss Olekalns
Institution:Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne
Abstract:In this paper we investigate the relationship between inflation and unemployment in Australia, post 1959. Our approach is based on identification of the time series components of the data. Evidence is found of significant correlations between the non-trend frequencies of inflation and unemployment and these correlations are exploited to estimate a simple forecasting model that does not suffer from the instability normally associated with the Phillips Curve. Estimates of the NAIRU are also provided and these range from as low as 2.3 per cent to as high as 9.2 per cent over this period, but these estimates are quite imprecise. Reasons for this imprecision are discussed.
Keywords:
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