| 欧债危机的现状评估、政策选择与演进前景 |
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| 引用本文： | 张明,郑英,敬云川. 欧债危机的现状评估、政策选择与演进前景[J]. 经济社会体制比较, 2012, 0(3): 24-38 |
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| 作者姓名： | 张明 郑英 敬云川 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所;广州市社科院;中国社会科学院金融研究所 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金重点项目“二十国集团面临的全球治理重点问题研究”(项目编号:11AGJ001);中国社会科学院创新工程项目“国际货币金融体系改革与中国的政策选择” |
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| 摘 要： | 文章首先评估了欧债危机的发展现状,包括欧洲危机的演进历程、潜在冲击以及对欧洲银行业造成的挑战;其次剖析了当前应对欧债危机的各种政策选择,包括利用EFSF/ESM机制、IMF的参与、发行欧洲债券以及由ECB担任最后贷款人,并分析了各种政策选择面临的制约因素;最后展望了欧债危机的三种可能前景:财政一体化、欧元区解体以及维持现状,并指出财政一体化前景的概率最高。
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| 关 键 词： | 欧债危机 EFSF 欧洲债券 财政一体化 |
Development Appraisal,Policy Options and Possible Scenarios of the European Debt Crisis |
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| Zhang Ming,Zheng Ying , Jing Yunchuan. Development Appraisal,Policy Options and Possible Scenarios of the European Debt Crisis[J]. Comparative Economic and Social Systems, 2012, 0(3): 24-38 |
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| Authors: | Zhang Ming Zheng Ying & Jing Yunchuan |
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| Affiliation: | (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing;Guangzhou Academy of Social Sciences,Guangzhou) |
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| Abstract: | First,this paper appraises the development of the European debt crisis,including its evolution,its potential impacts and the challenge to European commercial banks.Second,this paper analyzes the various policy options for handling the debt crisis,which include the utilization of EFSF and ESM,the involvement of the IMF,the issuance of Euro Bonds and letting the ECB play the lender of last resort.The policy constraints for each of the above options are also discussed.Third,this paper predicts three possible scenarios for the debt crisis:further fiscal integration,the collapse of the Euro Zone or maintenance of the status quo,pointing out that further fiscal integration is most likely. |
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| Keywords: | European Debt Crisis EFSF European Debt Fiscal Integration |
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