中国天然气供给预测及价格改革

中国近几年天然气消费增长较快,并且已经成为天然气净进口国。作为一种可耗竭资源,天然气产量也存在峰值,根据本文预测,中国的天然气产量将大约在2018年达到峰值。而中国仍处于工业化城市化进程中,能源需求刚性增加,天然气消费仍旧会有较大的增加,因而在产量达到峰值之后,将面临大量进口的局面。作为最大的发展中国家,中国天然气的大量进口,将会对国际天然气市场产生一定的影响。更为重要的是,中国的天然气价格仍旧以政府指导为主,大量的进口不仅直接威胁中国的能源安全,价格改革也将面临更大的压力。本文还进一步使用宏观政策工具(CGE)模拟天然气提价的宏观经济影响,研究发现:由于在能源消费中比重较小,因而对宏观经济各变量的影响较小,但由于主要消费部门是居民部门,因此对居民尤其是城市居民影响较大,因而需要采取渐进的改革方式,同时配合一定的补贴政策。

Natural Gas Supply Forecast and Pricing Reforms in China

Natural gas consumption has increased rapidly in recent years and China has now become a net gas importer.As a nonrenewable energy,the gas resource is exhaustible.Based on the forecast of this article, China’s gas production peak will be approaching likely in 2018.However,China is currently in the industrialization and urbanization stage,and its natural gas consumption will persistently increase at a fast rate.With China’s gas production peak,China will have to face a massive expansion in gas imports.As the largest developing country,China’s massive imports of gas will not only have an effect on the international gas market.In addition, as China’s natural gas price is still controlled by the government and has maintained at a low level,the massive imports of higher priced gas will exert great pressure on China’s energy safety and gas price reform.And in this article,CGE model will be applied to simulate the macro economical impacts of higher gas price.The results imply that as a small portion of energy consumption the impacts are slight.As urban residents are affected most,the reform should be taken by gradual,and accompanied by subsidies.