居民储蓄变动与经济增长及银行业之间关系研究

针对当前各界给予储蓄增长率持续降低的关注，本文认为，储蓄的增长本身与经济增长率之间存在并不十分确定的正向促进关系，其取决于经济所处的发展阶段以及银行的信用创造能力。在当前普遍强调储蓄下降对经济增长所起的负面作用情况下，对银行业的健康发展确实具有至关重要的作用，具体涉及到兑付风险、减少收入以及对股份制银行和上市银行的资本金影响。本文在实证检验了国内储蓄率变动的状况、原因之后，尝试从金融产品和国家税收政策等方面提出促进储蓄的对策建议。

Research on the Relation between Resident Savings, Economic Growth and Banking Indnstry

Aiming at all articles pay much more attention on the persistently declining of savings ratio, this article take the view that there is non-existence of the definitely positive-relationship between the savings and the economic growth, which depends on the stage of the economy and bank' s credit ability. Based on the negative effect analysis of declining savings to economic growth, points that the declining savings does play key role on the development of banking systems, such as banks' liquidity risk and reduction of revenue, and the influence to banks' capital which have been joint stock or listed company. At last, based on the positive test of savings fluctuation' s condition and reason, make some suggestions about improving the savings ratio from the point of finance products, institution and tax policy.