Model misspecification analysis for bond options and Markovian hedging strategies

In this paper, we analyse the model misspecification risk of Markovian hedging strategies for discount bond options. We show how to decompose the Profit and Loss that results from model misspecification, and emphasize the importance of the position’s gamma in order to control it. We further provide mathematical results on the distribution of the forward Profit and Loss function for specific univariate term structure models. Finally, we run numerical simulations for options’ hedging strategies in order to examine the sensitivity of the forward Profit and Loss function with respect to the volatility of the forward rate curve, the frequency of the position rebalancing and the characteristics of the position being hedged.