怎样解释中国经济波动：基于BCA的分析

本文应用Business Cycle Accounting（BCA）方法，分析效率、劳动、投资和政府消费等扭曲性楔子对中国经济波动的影响。基于一个基本新古典增长模型，本文先从总量数据中估算出这些楔子的实现值，再分别将它们反馈到模型中以进行模拟实验；实验结果表明，只有效率楔子对解释中国经济波动是最重要的。这个发现为解释中国经济波动提供了一种新思路——让经济冲击或经济结构因素产生全要素生产率（TFP）波动，借此来引起其他相关变量的波动；这样建立的模型等价于带有效率楔子的基本增长模型，因此能够解释总量数据的大部分波动，而它们揭示的经济波动机制更有意义。经济周期政策应该更加关注TFP的变动，因为能够影响TFP的政策措施才能更有效地作用于经济波动。

WHAT ACCOUNTS FOR BUSINESS CYCLES IN CHINA:AN ANALYSIS BASED ON BUSINESS CYCLE ACCOUNTING

This paper applies the business cycle accounting method to analyze the effects of the distorting efficiency, labor, investment and government consumption wedges on the economic fluctuations in China. Based on a neo classical growth model, this paper calculates and simulates the realized values of these wedges from aggregate data. The results indicate that only the efficiency wedges are important to explain Chinese business cycle. This paper provides a new way to explain the economic fluctuations in China, i.e., making economic shocks and frictions to generate TFP fluctuations, which leads to the fluctuations of other variables. It is equivalent to a growth model with efficiency wedges which can explain a large fraction of fluctuations of aggregate data. The counter cycle policy should pay more attention the volatility of TFP, since policies which can affect TFP may be more efficient to have an effect on economic fluctuations.