The use of technical analysis by fund managers: International evidence |
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| Authors: | Lukas Menkhoff |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Faculty of Business Administration and Management, Universidad Politécnica de Valencia, Camino de Vera s/n, 46022 Valencia, Spain;2. Faculty of Business & Social Sciences, Hamburg University of Applied Sciences, Berliner Tor 5, 20099 Hamburg, Germany;1. ICMA Centre, Henley Business School, University of Reading, UK;2. Management School, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, United Kingdom;1. Southampton Management School, University of Southampton, United Kingdom;2. Newcastle University Business School, Newcastle University, United Kingdom;3. Hull University Business School, University of Hull, United Kingdom;1. American University of Beirut, Lebanon;2. Chicago State University, United States;3. Tanta University, College of Business, Tanta, Egypt |
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| Abstract: | The use of technical analysis by financial market professionals is not well understood. This paper thus analyzes survey evidence from 692 fund managers in five countries, the vast majority of whom rely on technical analysis. At a forecasting horizon of weeks, technical analysis is the most important form of analysis and up to this horizon it is thus more important than fundamental analysis. Technicians are as experienced, as educated, as successful in their career and largely just as overconfident in decision-making as others. However, technical analysis is somewhat more popular in smaller asset management firms. What we find most significant is the relation of technical analysis with the view that prices are heavily determined by psychological influences. Consequently, technicians apply trend-following behavior. |
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