集聚模式、变迁诱因与行业成长性 ——基于浙江制造业的实证分析

经济转型期下的传统制造业发展正面临着严峻的挑战，尤其在一些行业集聚度高的区域，行业衰退造成的“多米诺骨牌”效应对地方经济发展和社会稳定带来了巨大的冲击，因此，对集聚行业升级、衰退机制的研究是一个急需探讨的问题。本文论述了行业集聚特征、集聚模式与行业成长性之间的关系机制，并在此基础上对行业集聚模式变迁诱因展开进一步的探讨。通过浙江省14个制造业数据的实证分析发现，集聚特征与行业成长性之间存在着显著的联系。另一方面，在行业集聚的变迁诱因中，技术变革、经济波动、政策效用、核心企业群以及要素成本都对行业集聚模式的转变起着重要的影响，决定着行业的发展轨迹。

THE IMPACT OF AGGLOMERATION MODES AND ITS DRIVING FACTORS ONINDUSTRY GROWTH —An Empirical Study Based on Zhejiang Manufacturing Industry

Traditional manufacturing industries were facing severe challenges under the economic transition, especially in some regions where industrial concentration degree were much higher. The domino effects caused by industrial recession brought huge impacts on the local economic development and social stability. This paper analyzed the relationship between the agglomeration characteristics, agglomeration modes and the industry growth, and made a further discussion on the driving factors of industrial agglomeration. The empirical results showed that there was a significant relationship between the agglomeration characteristics, agglomeration modes and the industry growth. Among the driving factors of industrial agglomeration, technological change, economic fluctuation, policy effects, core enterprise group and the factor cost played important influences on the industrial agglomeration modes, and determines the industrial development track.