地方政府债务理论： 国内外研究比较与国内研究展望

国外地方政府债务的研究伴随着财政联邦主义理论的出现而开始受到学者关注，无论在研究内容，还是在研究方法上，都形成了系统的体系和严密的逻辑。国内地方政府债务研究从21世纪初开始进入学者的视野，并在美国金融危机和欧洲债务危机爆发后成为理论界的热点研究领域。与国外研究相比，国内研究尚未建立起或运用鲜明的逻辑，研究的深度还需加强，研究方法也存在较大差距。基于国内研究的不足与差距，本文提出了国内地方政府债务研究展望，包括债务形成与发展的动态考察，债务规模决定因素的定量研究，债务可持续性分析与融资平台研究，债务管理的制度安排与体系设计。

THE THEORY OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT DEBT: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS BETWEEN DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN RESEARCH

With the emergence of the theory of fiscal federalism, close attention has been paid to study local government debt by foreign scholars. Both research contents and research methods abroad have constituted a scientific system and strict logic. The study on local government debt began to enter the field of vision of domestic scholars in the beginning of this century, and has become a hot research field after the USfinancial crisis and the European debt crisis. Compared to foreign research, an apparent logic has yet not established, depth of the research need to be strengthened, and a big gap exists in research methods in domestic study. Based on shortcomings and gap of domestic research, we propose research prospects for domestic local government debt, including debt dynamic investigation of local debts formation and development, quantitative study on the determinants of local debt, debt risk assessment, and institutional arrangements and system design of debt management.