A hybrid bankruptcy prediction model with dynamic loadings on accounting-ratio-based and market-based information: A binary quantile regression approach |
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Authors: | Ming-Yuan Leon Li Peter Miu |
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Institution: | 1. Department of Accountancy and Graduate Institute of Finance and Banking, College of Management, National Cheng Kung University, No. 1, University Rd., Tainan, Taiwan;2. DeGroote School of Business, McMaster University, 1280 Main Street West, Hamilton, ON, Canada L8S 4M4 |
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Abstract: | While using the binary quantile regression (BQR) model, we establish a hybrid bankruptcy prediction model with dynamic loadings for both the accounting-ratio-based and market-based information. Using the proposed model, we conduct an empirical study on a dataset comprising of default events during the period from 1996 to 2006. In this study, those firms experienced bankruptcy/liquidation events as defined by the Compustat database are classified as “defaulted” firms, whereas all other firms listed in the Fortune 500 with over a B-rating during the same time period are identified as “survived” firms. The empirical findings of this study are consistent with the following notions. The distance-to-default (DD) variable derived from the market-based model is statistically significant in explaining the observed default events, particularly of those firms with relatively poor credit quality (i.e., high credit risk). Conversely, the z-score obtained with the accounting-ratio-based approach is statistically significant in predicting bankruptcies of firms of relatively good credit quality (i.e., low credit risk). In-sample and out-of-sample bankruptcy prediction tests demonstrated the superior performance of utilizing dynamic loadings rather than constant loadings derived by the conventional logit model. |
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