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中国未来10年通胀周期预测及其验证
引用本文:郝之洪. 中国未来10年通胀周期预测及其验证[J]. 现代财经, 2006, 26(7): 60-63,68
作者姓名:郝之洪
作者单位:天津财经大学市场营销系,天津300222
摘    要:采用增广Pisarenko方法对当代中国通货膨胀周期进行分析验证,可得出通货膨胀周期函数。运用这一周期函数对中国通货膨胀周期进行10年预测,可得出2009年左右、2013年左右中国可能出现较高的通货膨胀预测结果。因此,必须对可能出现的较高的通货膨胀保持足够的警惕,做好必要准备。

关 键 词:通货膨胀  周期  增广Pisarenko方法  预测
文章编号:1005-1007(2006)07-0060-04
收稿时间:2005-09-10
修稿时间:2005-09-10

Prediction and verification of China''''s Inflation Period Over the Next Decade
Hao Zhihong. Prediction and verification of China''''s Inflation Period Over the Next Decade[J]. Modern Finance and Economics(Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics), 2006, 26(7): 60-63,68
Authors:Hao Zhihong
Abstract:The author conducts the analysis and confirmation of the contemporary Chinese inflation cycle by adopting Generalized Pisarenko algorithm. Moreover, the author makes a ten- year prediction of inflation of China with the inflation period function. The prediction indicates that there will be relatively high inflation in the year around 2009 and 2013, that is, the inflation level is on the rise. This can deserve extensive concern from the government, so that it can be alert to, and take necessary precaution against the inflation.
Keywords:Inflation    Cycle    Generalized Pisarenko Algorithm    Prediction
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