物流基础设施网络节点的动态选址研究

物流基础设施网络节点的选址决策是一个长期决策,而随着时间的推移,需求和成本模式会随之变化,那么原来的选址决策就可能不是最优的,这时就需要确定一个随时间变化的选址方案,这个过程就是物流基础设施网络节点的动态选址.本文采用时间序列平滑预测法对需求进行预测,并据此用静态选址模型（重心法）得出结论,再运用动态规划技术,找出一个物流基础设施网络节点动态最优选址-再选址方案,使得计划期内的累积总利润现值最大化,并引入预测准确性因子来提高预测的准确性.

Location Analysis of the Dynamic Logistics Infrastructure Network Nodes

Logistics infrastructure network nodes location decision is a long-term decision-making, but with time goes on, the demand and cost models will change accordingly, so at this time the previous location decision may not be the optimal choice any more. Therefore, we need to build a location model, which can change itself in pace with the time. This process is called dynamic location of logistics infrastructure network node. In this text, we will use time-series forecast model to calculate the future demand, static location models(centre of gravity)to get a conclusion, and dynamic planning techniques to identify a dynamic location and re-location model to get an optimal solution for logistics infrastructure network node. Moreover, we will also introduce the forecast accuracy factor to improve the accuracy of the forecast. By doing this, we intend to make a maximization of the cumulative total present value of profit within the planning term.