中间产品贸易、垂直专业化生产与FDI的关系:基于我国数据的协整分析

在产品内国际分工的条件下,中间产品贸易在全部贸易中的比重日益提高,尤其我国工业行业的中间产品贸易更是发展迅速。基于中间产品贸易,国际生产体系的新格局导致了生产向垂直专业化方向发展,依据Hummels等(2001)对垂直专业化比率的计算方法,测算到工业行业出口贸易的垂直专业化程度。本文检验了外国直接投资与垂直专业化生产和中间产品贸易之间的关系,得出外国直接投资分别与垂直专业化生产和中间产品贸易具有单向的因果关系,并且三者之间存在着长期稳定的协整关系。

The Relationships among Intermediate Production Trade,Vertical Specialization and FDI

Under the conditions of intra-product international division of labor,the share of intermediate product trade on the total trade is rising increasingly,especially that the intermediate product trade of industrial sectors develops much faster. In addition,the new pattern of international production system results in vertical specialization production. Based on the calculation method of vertical specialization share(VSS)by Hummels etc.(2001),this paper calculates the VSS of industrial export. The paper tests the causality among FDI,vertical specialization production and intermediate product trade,and concludes that FDI has unilateral causality with vertical specialization division of labor and intermediate product trade,and there exists long-term steady cointegration relationship among them.