现阶段我国汇率政策在金融政策组合中的效应分析

尽管对单一宏观政策的研究已经较为深入了，但对两种宏观政策的组合效应的研究还较为缺乏。本文正是从这一角度出发，分析了当前我国实行的积极的货币政策和稳定的汇率政策组合的正负效应。并且指出，尽管这种组合对由于货币供给的内生性造成的货币政策效率低下具有弥补作用，但是却加剧了外部经济的失衡，并且，这种失衡由于“溢出效应”而会影响到内部经济均衡。从而出现了诸如储备机会成本增高、基础货币供应控制的难度加大、准备金制度改革难度加大等矛盾。因此，不应该将牺牲外部均衡来保全内部均衡的做法作为其长期政策取向。

Analysis of Effect on Exchange Rate Policy Blending in Combination of Financial Policy in China

Although the study of the single macroeconomic policy has arrived at a deep level, we have lacked of a theory that focuses on the combinative effect of two kinds of macroeconomic policies. This article is just from this standpoint, and analyzes the positive and negative effect, which is from the combination of positive monetary policy and steady exchange rate policy. The article also points out that endogenous money supply will make monetary policy lower efficient and the policy combination will compensate the inefficiency. But at the same time the policy combination will make the external economy out of balance. Furthermore,due to the overflow effect, the external imbalance will affect the balance of internal economy. Besides, many problerms will be aggravated by the combination. The problerms are including oppertunity cost of reserves being enhanced, the control of basic money and the reform of reserves system being more difficult. Therefore, we should not give up balance of external economy to preserve the balance of internal economy. We should not make it as a long range policy.