央行的"囚徒困境"——评高额外汇储备对货币政策影响

近年来我国外汇储备高速增长以及2006年2月跃居世界第一成了国内外的焦点。高额外汇储备隐含的巨大风险及潜在成本已经引起了广泛关注。本文从高额外汇储备所蕴含的风险之一——高额外汇储备削弱央行货币政策独立性的角度,分三部分分析了当前我国外汇储备的问题。首先描述了当前我国外汇储备高速增长现象及原因,其次分析了高额外汇储备以及央行货币政策之间相互作用的机理及其潜在的风险,最后针对其潜在风险提出相应解决之道。

Central Bank Plays in " Prisoners' Dilemma"

Recently,China's fast increase of foreign exchange reserve and being the number one of the mount of foreign exchange reserve have been the focus and its potential huge risk and cost have caused the world wide attention.The thesis analyses the current problems existing in our country' s foreign exchange reserve from the angle of one of the potential risks---the high mount of foreign exchange reserve will weaken the independence of central bank's monetary policy.The first part mainly describes the current phenomenon of foreign exchange reserve's fast increase and explains the reasons.In the second part,it analyses the interaction between the high mount of foreign exchange reserve and the central bank's monetary policy,which has the potential huge risk.The last part puts forward the resolutions to the possible existing risk.