关于中国股市盈余能否增加居民消费的思考——基于实际余额效应的视角

利用1992年1月－2009年12月的中国城镇居民消费和可支配收入以及上证指数的月度数据，运用协整检验、误差修正模型、格兰杰因果检验和脉）中响应函数分析方法进行实证研究，得出股市的实际余额效应发生转向，股票价格指数上涨使得消费减少。消费与城镇居民可支配收入成正向关系。通过格兰杰因果检验可知，无论从短期还是长期来看，股票价格指数的上涨不是居民消费总额增长的格兰杰原因，居民可支配收入的增加是居民消费增加的格兰杰原因。

Consideration on whether China's Stock Profits can Increase Household Consumption

Based on urban residents consumption and disposable income data from january in 1992 to in September 2009,as well as the Shanghai index's monthly data,the author uses cointegration tests,error correction model,Granger causality test and impulse response function to analyze the wealth effect of China's stock market.The empirical researches concluded that the actual stock balance effect happens steering,the stock index rising made consumption reduced.There are positive relation between consumption and urban r...