物价与货币政策调控最优契合的实证研究

本文从货币渠道和信贷渠道对物价与货币政策的关系进行实证检验。结果表明,货币政策与物价水平之间存在稳定的均衡关系,但是货币政策存在滞后性,货币供应量M2的滞后期约为2个月,金融机构各项贷款规模的滞后期约为4个月,并基于此对货币政策调控提出相关建议。

Quantitative Study on Optimal Fit of Prices and Monetary Policy Regulation

Considering the current price fluctuations and monetary policy changes, the article uses monthly data from January 2006 to May 2012, and both the monetary channel and credit channel, to empirically test the relationship between commodity prices and monetary policy. The empirical results show stable equilibrium relationship between monetary policy and the price level, but as monetary policy has hysteretic nature, the time lag between price level and money supply M2 index is about 2 months, and financial institutions the Loan scale of Loan index is about 4 months. Based on this, the article puts for- ward some suggestions on monetary policy control. Monetary policy should predict the development of appropriate regulatory policies in advance according to the time lag effect of monetary policy implementation.