应用贝叶斯网络构建处理不确定数据的决策支持系统

决策问题可形式化描述为世界(环境)状态框架下的决策模型,决策支持的主要目的是来根据环境中已知的对环境状态有影响的事件来辅助评估最有可能的外部世界的状态。用来处理这类问题的数学工具是贝叶斯网络(Bayesian network)。通过把世界的状态被看作是相互依赖于外部事件的随机变量,把这些随机变量和它们之间的相互关系用概率因果网络表示。任何对于外部事件的证据通过贝叶斯网络来传播并根据信任的程度来确定外部世界的状态,并作出决策。

Using Bayesian Networks Approach to Construct Decision Support System with Uncertain Data

This paper is concerned with the decision support system (DSS) used in decision-making with uncertain data. The decision-making problem is formulated in the framework of state-of-the-world decision-making model and the main purpose of the decision support system that will be developed is to aid to estimate the most likely state of the world according to some external or environmental events that are known to have an influence on it. The mathematical tool used to tackle this problem is Bayesian networks (BN). The state of the world is considered to be a random variable depending on some random environmental events organized in probabilistic causal network known as bayesian network. Any evidence of environmental events is then propagated by the bayesian network to estimate the state of the world with some degree of confidence that is used to make decision.