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Understanding international commodity price fluctuations
Affiliation:1. IMF Research Department, United States;2. Brookings Institution, United States;3. OxCarre, Oxford University, United Kingdom;1. University of Calabria, Department of Economics, Statistics and Finance, I-87036 Rende, Cosenza, Italy;2. Bonn University, Center for Development Research, ZEF, D-53113 Bonn, Germany;1. International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC, USA;2. Queen''s University Management School, Queen''s University Belfast, 185 Stranmillis Road, Belfast BT9 5EE, UK;3. Liverpool Management School, Liverpool University, UK;4. Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Ave, NW, Washington, DC 20036, USA;1. Department of Economics, Yıldırım Beyazıt University, Cinnah cad. No:16, Ankara, Turkey;2. Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University, Inönü Bulvari, Ankara, Turkey;1. Université Catholique de Louvain, IRES, B-1348 Louvain-La-Neuve, Belgium;2. IPAG Business School, 184 Boulevard Saint-Germain, 75006 Paris, France;3. University of Luxembourg, CREA, L-1511, Luxembourg
Abstract:An overview is provided of recent work on commodity prices, focusing on three themes: (i) "financialization" of commodity markets--commodities being considered by financial investors as a distinct asset class, (ii) trends and forecasts of commodity prices, and (iii) fracking—a shorthand for the emergence of new sources of energy supply. Lessons are drawn on the role of fundamentals and expectations in driving the rapidly changing nature of commodity markets.
Keywords:Commodity price  Financialization  Forecasting  Fracking  Fundamentals  Expectations  Q43  F02  G15  G28
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