Assessing spatial dynamics of urban growth using an integrated land use model. Application in Santiago Metropolitan Area, 2010–2045

Scenario analysis of urban dynamics from spatial land use models can support urban, planning and policy. An integrated modeling approach, linking assessment of urban spatial dynamics, was applied to the Santiago Metropolitan Area (SMA). The integrated land use change model combines, a logistic regression model, Markov chain, and cellular automata. This model was calibrated with data, from 1975 to 2010, and was used to make predictions for the years 2030 and 2045, using two datasets of, urban and non-urban explanatory variables. Urban change estimates showed the highest fit during the, model calibration phase. The true-positive proportion and standard Kappa value (κ) were of 99% and, 0.87 respectively when validating against an urban cover reference map from 2010. Urban growth was, equal to +27,000 ha (72%) for the period 1975–2010, and the city of Santiago is projected to, reach approximately 93,000 ha by 2045 (+43% from 2010). In the SMA the most important, urban growth pattern is peri-urban development, referring to widespread boundaries and higher, fragmentation in peripheral municipalities. Predictions for 2030 estimate that ～15% of the projected, urban expansion will occur outside the boundary set by the current Regulatory Plan proposal. These, results demonstrate the capacity of the integrated model to establish comparisons with urban plans, and its utility to explain both the amount and constraints of urban growth. The integrated approach of, urban dynamic assessment using land use modeling is useful for spatiotemporal representation of, distinct urban development forms.