美国货币政策对中国信贷市场的溢出效应研究

本文使用向量自回归误差修正模型(VECM)研究了美国货币政策对中国信贷市场的溢出性影响。研究发现,美国货币政策可以通过影响中国的信贷市场而作用于中国内生的广义货币供给。宽松的美国货币政策对中国信贷供给有正向影响。美元流动性通过该机制形成了对中国过剩流动性的溢出效应。在后危机时代,我们需要对美国货币政策可能的调整进行前瞻性的应对。

The Spillover Impact of U.S.Monetary Policy on the Credit Market of China

This paper analyzes the spillover effect of the United States monetary policy on Chinese credit market.The evidence shows that the U.S.monetary policy can affect Chinese endogenous money supply by affecting the credit market in China.The positive monetary policy of the United States has positive effect on Chinese credit supply.Through this channel,the liquidity in China is influenced by the spillover effect of dollar liquidity.In the post-crisis era,we need to prepare to cope with the potential changes of dollar liquidity in advance.