投资房地产可以对冲通货膨胀风险吗——以中国内地为例

本文基于费雪效应,考察了中国内地过去20余年间通货膨胀率与房地产收益率的同期关系、长期均衡关系,以及在不同收益率条件分布下二者的关系。结果表明,短期内投资房地产不能对冲通货膨胀,但从长期来看,投资房地产却是对冲通货膨胀的有效工具。然而在房地产收益率处于"极端"情形下,盲目投资房地产不但不会抵御通货膨胀风险,还会带来更大的损失。

Can Real Estate Provide a Hedge Against Inflation?——evidence from Chinese mainland

Based on the Fisher effect,this study examined the short-term relationship between inflation and real estate returns,the long-term equilibrium,and in different conditional distribution of real estate returns the relationship between the two on the Chinese mainland over the past more than twenty years.The empirical results show that short-term investment in real estate can not be a hedge against inflation,but in the long run,investing in real estate is an effective tool to hedge against inflation.However,in the "extreme" cases of the real estate returns,blindly invest in real estate not only against the risk of inflation,but also lead to greater losses.