普京新政与俄罗斯经济政策走向

第三次当选总统的普京将立足于新型工业化道路,通过产业政策主导经济发展,大型国有企业与金融机构仍将成为关键性力量,国家垄断资本主义政策仍将延续,国有制将长期存在于自然垄断、军事工业与原材料产业。同时,普京也将试图通过减少管制和私有化来降低风险。再工业化定位、消除财政赤字的压力、欧美债务危机的警示、中产阶级的快速崛起,决定了普京政府的民粹主义色彩将不得不有所淡化,政策重点将主要围绕培育人力资本与发展高科技产业而展开。经济政策能否推动创新发展与结构转型,取决于一系列条件,其中最为重要的,是政治制度能否顺利实现转型。

Putin’s New Policies and the Trends of Russia’s Economic Policy

Putin was inaugurated as President of the Russian Federation on May 7,2012,starting a six-year third term as Russian president.Putin is expected to take on a new type of industrialized path and promote economic development through industrial policies.Under his new term,large-sized state-owned enterprises and financial institutions will play a crucial role.The policy of state monopoly capitalism will carry forward the idea that state ownership will long exist in the natural monopolies,military and raw material industries.At the same time,Putin is also expected to lower risks through deregulation and privatization.The orientation of re-industrialization,pressures to eliminate budget deficits,the lessons of the debt crisis in the US and some European nations as well as the rapid rise of Russia’ middle class decide that Putin will have to weaken the Russian populist tinge during his new term of presidency and focus his policies on human capital cultivation and the development of high-tech industries.Whether Russia’s economic policies can push forward its innovations and structural transformation is decided by a series of conditions,of which the most important is whether its political system can realize a smooth transition.