| 基于ARIMA模型的中国玉米单产潜力分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 蔡承智,熊艺龙,廖从健,王辉,侯来义,曾晓珊.基于ARIMA模型的中国玉米单产潜力分析[J].粮食科技与经济,2021,46(1):15-17. |
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| 作者姓名： | 蔡承智 熊艺龙 廖从健 王辉 侯来义 曾晓珊 |
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| 作者单位： | 贵州财经大学 经济研究所,贵州 贵阳 550025;贵州大学 经济学院,贵州 贵阳 550025;贵州省山地环境气候研究所,贵州 贵阳 550002 |
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| 基金项目： | 贵州省科技计划(黔科合外G字[2012]7051号)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 在中国玉米单产的AEZ(农业生态区划)模型潜力基础上,运用ARIMA(自回归单整移动平均)模型,基于1949—2018年数据预测2023年前中国玉米单产.结果表明:2019、2020、2021、2022和2023年中国玉米单产分别为6293、6458、6627、6801和6979 kg/hm2,分别是AEZ模型潜力上限...
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| 关 键 词： | ARIMA模型 中国 玉米 单产 |
Parsing Chinese Maize Yield Potential Based on Arima Model |
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| Cai Chengzhi,Xiong Yilong,Liao Congjian,Wang Hui,Hou Laiyi,Zeng Xiaoshan.Parsing Chinese Maize Yield Potential Based on Arima Model[J].Grain Technology and Economy,2021,46(1):15-17. |
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| Authors: | Cai Chengzhi Xiong Yilong Liao Congjian Wang Hui Hou Laiyi Zeng Xiaoshan |
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| Institution: | (Economic Institute,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang,Cuizhou 550025;Economic School of Guizhou University,Guiyang,Cuizhou 550025;Guizhou Provincial Institute of Mountain Environment and Climate,Guiyang,Cuizhou 550002) |
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| Abstract: | Chinese maize yields by 2023 were projected on 1949 to 2018 data basis using ARIMA(Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average)model based on potential yield estimated by Agricultural Ecological Zoning(AEZ)model.Our results showed that Chinese maize yields in 2019,2020,2021,2022 and 2023 were projected to be 6293,6458,6627,6801 and 6979 kg/hm2 respectively,or 49.82%,51.13%,52.47%,53.84%and 55.25%of its maximum potential 11100 kg/hm2 estimated by AEZ model.The results mean that Chinese maize yield still has a considerable space to rise in 2019 to 2023,and higher improvement for Chinese maize output in the future should come from comprehensive advantages through the amelioration of middle and low yield fields to enhance integrated cropping efficiency.The results are of corresponding reference value to guide Chinese maize research and production. |
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| Keywords: | ARIMA model China maize yield |
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