中国健康资本内生折旧率估算及成因分析

"健康中国"战略背景下,准确估算健康资本折旧率对把握我国人口健康资本动态变化具有重要意义。在经典的健康资本需求框架内,正式引入年龄、环境与健康投资的异质性,扩展构建健康资本内生折旧率模型。基于永续盘存法基本原理,结合精算模型与生命表数据,对不同年龄、性别和风险假设下我国居民健康资本折旧率进行估算与分析。研究发现,我国居民健康资本折旧率存在明显的年龄差异与性别差异:中青年阶段折旧率缓慢提高、老年阶段加速上升;男性健康资本折旧率始终高于女性。随着人口老龄化程度加深,年龄对健康资本折旧率的影响下降,健康投资的影响则持续增强。提高健康投资回报率,是降低折旧率进而提高我国人均健康资本存量的关键。

Estimation of Endogenous Depreciation Rate of Health Capital and Relative Analysis in China

Under the background of"Healthy China"strategy,it is of great significance to accurately estimate the depreciation rate of health capital for grasping the dynamic changes of population health capital in China.This paper formally introduces the heterogeneity of age,environment and health investment within the framework of classical health capital demand,and expands the construction of endogenous depreciation rate model of health capital.Based on the basic principle of the perpetual inventory method,combined with actuarial model and life table data,the depreciation rate of health capital of Chinese residents under different age,gender and risk assumptions is estimated and analyzed.The research finds that there are obvious age and gender differences in the depreciation rate of health capital among Chinese residents.The depreciation rate of health capital in middle-aged and young people is increasing slowly,and that in old age is accelerating.The depreciation rate of health capital in men is always higher than that in women.With the deepening of population aging,the impact of age on the depreciation rate of health capital decreases,while the impact of health investment continues to increase.Improving the rate of return on health investment is the key to reducing depreciation rate and improving the per capita health capital stock in China.