Occupational status,earnings, and fertility expectations: Development and estimation of a causal model

Summary This paper tests, within the framework of LISREL, the causal structures of occupational status, earnings, and fertility expectations using data from the 1984 Canadian Fertility Survey of currently married and common-law women aged 18–44. Differential occupational status, earnings, and fertility among three groups of wives classified by generation of Canadian residence are also examined. The models incorporate age, education, work experience, and ethnic/English language ability as exogenous determinants of occupational status, earnings, and fertility.The major findings are: (1) lower earnings of third generation wives are strongly related to lower levels of education, work experience, and job status; (2) wives who speak an ethnic language are likely to have lower fertility than comparable wives who do not speak an ethnic language; and (3) generational effects on earnings and fertility are limited to differences in education, work experience, and occupational status.The author is grateful to Dr. Karol J. Krotki, co-director of the Canadian Fertility Study, for permission to analyze the Canadian Fertility Survey data. Special thanks are also due to Ms. Margaret King for her comments on an earlier draft of the paper.