金融因素对我国农产品价格波动的影响研究

随着农产品市场化程度的不断提高,我国农产品价格波动受到金融因素的影响日益显著。利用Newey-West一致协方差估计法分别对稻谷、大豆、棉花和生猪的需求因素进行实证分析的结果表明:从总体上看,由于不同农产品的市场化程度具有差异性,金融因素对我国农产品价格的具体品种影响程度并不一致,其中人口数量对四类主要农产品具有显著影响,而经济的较快发展对整体农产品影响显著;金融变量总体上会对农产品价格产生不同程度影响;对于其他因素,包括居民的消费水平、农业国际直接投资等对农产品价格影响不显著。

Impact of Financial Factors on the Price Fluctuation of Agricultural Products

With the increasing marketization degree of agricultural products, price fluctuation affected by the financial factors was in- creasingly significant. An empirical analysis of demand factors for rice, soybeans, cotton and the hog is conducted by means of Newey-West consistent covariance estimation method. The results prove that financial factors have an inconsistent impact on the price of specific varieties due to the different marketization degree of various agricultural products. Population size exerts significant effect on the four main agricultural products. Rapid economic development impacts on the whole agricultural products. All financial variables have varying in- fluencing degrees. And other factors such as consumption level and direct international investment in agriculture are not prominent.