乡村公路、人口城市化和乡村包容性经济增长

俗语有曰"要想富,先修路",但建设乡村公路体系真能实现普遍富裕的目标诉求吗?文章在分工经济学理论框架下,构建了"一城vs两村"的三部门城乡分工理论模型,分析认为,乡村公路建设有利于提升整个城乡分工结构体系内的交易效率,能够将落后乡村区域纳入到一个由所属城镇主导的完整城乡分工网络体系中,此时当城市人口规模扩张需求旺盛时,构建完善的乡村公路体系,有利于促进乡村间经济增长差距收敛的同时推动乡村整体以间接效用表示的人均真实收入水平的提高,以此实现乡村包容性经济增长的目标。据此,文章构建了一个统一将农村经济增长效应和经济效益分配效应囊括在内的计量实证分析框架,通过寻找外生工具变量,并经严谨的稳健性检验,证明了上述理论命题。同时发现,在乡村公路体系建设中,如果忽视人口城市化的协调机制,其建设将导致"富庶之地越富,贫乏之地越贫"之困境,因此,为了实现包容性经济增长和共同富裕的目标诉求,必须充分重视以完善城镇产业尤其是劳动密集型产业为主要特征的人口就近城市化。此外,在对乡村公路等级的异质性分析中发现,二和四级公路建设对乡村包容性经济增长效应具有显著的促进作用,且前者强于后者,但三级公路则扩大了局部乡村间的经济发展差距。上述研究,有利于指导政府在促进城乡基础设施建设的同时,更加兼顾人口就近城市化的协调作用,以此高效推进实现乡村包容性经济增长的发展目标。

Rural Roads,Urbanization and Inclusive Rural Economic Growth

The folk adage says that if want to be rich, we should do more to construct roads, but only by building urban-rural highway net system, can we really realize the goal of universal opulence? Under the theoretical framework of infra-marginal economics of division of labor built by the famous economist Yang Xiaokai, the paper tries to establish a theoretical model of including "one city and two villages" with the purpose of illustrating that constructing the perfect urban-rural highway net system can promote the transaction efficiency of the whole urban-rural net system about division of labor as well as can pull the relatively poor villages into the whole urban-rural net system about division of labor directed by the city nearby, moreover, when the bigger the urban-rural highway net system is, the easier the goal of universal opulence can be realized when driving the formation about the integrated economic evolution situation about the urban-rural area, even the whole geographical zone, but the above goals should satisfy the necessary condition, which the production elasticity of labor force in city should be bigger than the production elasticity of raw agriculture materials, that means the urban population scale expansion should be the preconditions of the realization of the goal of universal opulence and inclusive economic growth. Meanwhile, based on the existing research, this paper uses panel data to build a united econometric analytical framework of including the economic growing and distribution effects, at the same time to search for the appropriate instrumental variables to prove the above proposition by the 2sls (Two Stage Least Square) methods, and then we go on to do several corresponding robustness tests. These econometric analytical results prove the exactness of the above proposition and we do more eonomical explanation for the above econometrical results. It's worth talking about that we simultaneously find that if we neglect the mediated impact of the urban population scale expansion during the process of construction of the urban-rural highway net system, we may face the difficult situation of "the rich area becomes richer, but the poor area becomes more poor", so in order to achieve the goal of inclusive economic growth and common prosperity, it is necessary to pay more attention to the population urbanization with the main characteristics of the prosperous urban industry, especially the labor-intensive industry. In addition, we further analyse the heterogeneous influences about the differentiated urban-rural highway towards the goal of universal opulence and find that the second and fourth rank highway can conspicuously promote the goal of universal opulence and the former stronger than the latter, while the third high way expands the rural inner economic developing gap. The above research is helpful to guide the governments not only to promote the construction of urban and rural infrastructure, but also to pay more attention to the coordination role of population urbanization, so as to effectively promote the development goal of Inclusive Rural Economic Growth.