双边政治关系与中国企业跨国并购成功率——基于联合国大会投票数据的研究

跨国并购是中国积极参与全球治理的重要方式,建立友好的双边政治关系是中国"走出去"的重要前提和保障。文章基于1993-2017年中国对全球181个国家或地区的跨国并购数据,并用联合国大会投票数据最新测算的国家间政治立场指数之差的绝对值作为国家间政治关系的代理变量,考察双边政治关系对中国企业跨国并购成功率的影响及其机制。研究结果表明,双边政治关系拉近能够显著提高中国企业跨国并购成功率,在更换了被解释变量和解释变量的度量方式、考虑了数据删失和内生性问题后,结论依然成立。其次,通过中介效应模型,研究发现双边政治关系通过促进两国签署与生效双边投资协定以及孔子学院的建立提高中国企业跨国并购的成功率。第三,进一步检验发现,友好政治关系促进中国企业跨国并购成功率的效应,在不同行业和资源行业并购中更大,在"一带一路"和亚洲国家效应更大。

Bilateral Political Relation and China's Cross-Border M&As: A Research Based on the UNGA Vote Data

Cross borderMergers and Acquisitions (M & As) is an important way for China to actively participate in global governance, and the establishment of friendly bilateral political relations is an important prerequisite and guarantee for China's "Going Out". Based on the data of China's cross-border M & As in 181 countries or regions in the world from 1993 to 2017, this paper uses the absolute value of the political position indexes difference between countries by the voting data of the United Nations General Assembly as the proxy variable of bilateral political relations between countries, to investigate the impact of bilateral political relations on the success rate of cross-border M & As of Chinese enterprises and its mechanism.The results show that closer bilateral political relationship can significantly improve the success rate of cross-border M & As of Chinese enterprises, and the conclusion is still robust after changing the measurement method of the explained and explaining variables, considering the data deletion and endogenous problems. Secondly, through the mediation effect model, we find that the bilateral political relations affect the success rate of cross-border M &As through promoting the signing and entry into force of Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs) between the two countries and establishing Confucius Institute to deepen political and cultural exchanges between the two countries.