结构性减速视角下中国全要素生产率的实证研究

在中国经济增长速度下降的背景下,运用共同边界-两期权重修正罗素模型,对中国第二、三产业2004-2016年30个省份一位码分行业、典型省份广东省二位码细分行业全要素生产率进行实证分析。考虑到地区和行业的异质性,从多个层次、多个维度对中国第二、三产业全要素生产率进行对比分析,并检验"结构性减速"是否适用于当前中国经济。研究显示：第三产业全要素生产率增长均高于第二产业,这表明"结构性减速"是此轮中国经济增速下降的原因的看法并不成立。但在研究期间中国第二、三产业的全要素生产率均呈负增长,这说明中国经济增速下降的真正原因在于中国两大支柱性产业的全要素生产率对经济增长的贡献率下降。同时发现近年来各行业全要素生产率的增长率有上升趋势,这意味着中国经济正在从"中高速增长"向"高质量发展"转变。

An Empirical Study of China's Total Factor Productivity from the Perspective of “Structural Deceleration”

Under the background of the decline of China's economic development speed. This paper uses the Metafrontier Biennial Weight Modified Russell model(Metafrontier-BWMRM) to make an empirical analysis of the total factor productivity for the one-digit code subsectors of secondary and tertiary industries in 30 provinces and two-digit code subsectors in typical Guangdong province in China from 2004 to 2016. Considering the heterogeneity of regions and industries, this paper conducts a comparative analysis of total factor productivity in China's second and third industries from the multi-level and multi-dimensional perspective, and verifies whether the "structural slowdown" is suitable for the current Chinese economy. Research shows that the average total factor productivity of the tertiary industry is higher than that of the secondary industry, which indicates that the mainstream view that "structural slowdown" is the cause of China's economic growth decline is not true. However, during the period, the average productivity of China's secondary and tertiary industries shows negative growth, which indicates that the real reason for the decline in China's economic growth is that the total factor productivity of China's two pillar industries' contribution to economic growth "simultaneously" declined. At the same time, it is found that the growth rate of productivity in various industries tends to increase in recent years, which means that China's economy is transforming from "medium-high speed growth" to "high-quality development".