中国产业政策对产能过剩的治理效应及机制研究

改革开放以来,中国制造业快速发展的同时出现了不可忽略的产能过剩问题,已有文献多从"市场失灵"或"政府失灵"上寻找原因,亦有学者将研究视角转向产业政策,但从产业政策层面展开的研究未能得到一致的结论。文章利用我国2001-2015年分省份制造业行业的面板数据实证检验产业政策对产能过剩的影响关系。结果表明：产业政策在平均意义上提高了制造业的产能利用率,显著缓解了产能过剩。进一步证实了产业政策确实与产能过剩相关联的常见特征有显著关系,产业政策提高了产出规模、产销比和利润产出比,同时降低了投入产出比。文章进一步研究了地方政府压力对制造业产能利用水平的影响效应。地方政府财政压力、经济增长压力和官员晋升压力不仅引致了产能过剩,而且削弱了产业政策对产能过剩的治理效果。文章的研究增进了人们对政府行为、产业政策和产能过剩三者内在关系的理解。

Research on the Alleviation Effect and Mechanism of China's Industrial Policy on Overcapacity

Since the reform and opening up, China's manufacturing industry has made great progress.Some scholars looked for the causes of "market failure" or "government failure", while others turned their research perspective to industrial policy, but the research from the industrial policy failed to reach a consistent conclusion.Based on this, this paper empirically tested the relationship between industrial policy and overcapacity by using panel data of manufacturing industries in different provinces from 2001 to 2015.The results show that the industrial policy has improved the capacity utilization of corresponding industries and alleviated the overcapacity in the average sense.In order to ensure the stability and reliability of this conclusion, this paper further proves that there is a significant relationship between industrial policies and common characteristics associated with overcapacity. Industrial policies increase the output scale, increase the ratio of production to sales, increase the ratio of profit to output, and restrain the ratio of input to output.This paper then carried out an extended analysis of industrial policy types, and the results showed that no matter traditional, pillar or emerging industrial policies had a positive impact on capacity utilization, which once again confirmed the view of this paper.The research conclusion of this paper also supports the view that the government has a great influence on manufacturing capacity utilization. The government's financial pressure, growth pressure and promotion pressure not only led to overcapacity, but also reduced the governance effect of industrial policies on overcapacity, aggravating the severity of the surplus problem.